Newmarket's Cambridgeshire, Newmarket Rowley Racecourse, Guineas Festival 2016

Eclipster: Iridessa looks good for 1,000 Guineas

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Sunday 5th May, 3:35pm 1m (Row) Qipco 1,000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Fillies) (Class 1) (3yo)

The 1,000 Guineas was first run in 1814 five years after the inaugural running of the 2,000 Guineas. The race is open to three year old fillies only and is run over the Rowley Mile course at Newmarket.

The biggest priced outsider to win the race was Ferry who won at odds of 50/1 in 1918. The easiest winner was Tontine in 1825 as she was the only runner and was therefore declared the winner by a walkover. Seven other fillies had been entered for the race by their owners who had paid £100 each (£10,400 today) to enter the race, but none of them appeared on the day. Tontine was allowed to claim the prize by merely walking over the course. Many of the early renewals of both the 1,000 and 2,000 Guineas attracted small fields, but this was the only occasion on which a winner was declared without the race being run.

Recent statistical trends for the 1,000 Guineas are the exact opposite of statistics needed to win the 2,000 Guineas.

A prep race in the current season is an important pointer when looking for the winner with nine of the last 13 winners running within 31 days of the race. Fillies who won on their previous start also require careful consideration as eight of the last 13 winners fit this profile.

Profiling likely winners should also include previous experience of running at Newmarket and previous experience of running over the race distance of 1 mile. Nine of the last 13 winners had previously run at Newmarket with seven out of 13 having winning form at the course. Previous distance form appears to be a key statistic as 10 of the last 13 winners had run over 1 mile. Winning form over 1 mile is less important with only five of the last 13 winners having previously won over the distance.

Racing experience is more important for 1,000 Guinea winners with 11 of the last 13 winners running four times or more before running in the Guineas.

As with the 2,000 Guineas profile, previous winning form at Group level is a good pointer with nine of the last 13 winners having had at least one win in Group 1 to 3 events. When considering Official Ratings look for horses rated 106 or higher as eight of the last 13 winners had marks of 106 or higher.

The betting is not a completely reliable guide as only four favourites have won any of the last 13 renewals and only 46% of the winners were in the first three in the betting. The odds of the other seven winners range from 9/1 to 66/1, so do not be put off if you fancy a runners at a bigger price.

One horse stands out on the statistics for the 1,000 Guineas. Iridessa who is trained by Joseph O’Brien finished third in a Leopardstown Group 3 1,000 Guineas trial in April. She has run five times in her career to date, with both of her wins coming over 1 mile, including the Group 2 Fillies Mile and Newmarket last October. The bay filly has an Official Rating of 113 and with her prep run behind her is entitled to go well at a price around 8/1.

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Please note: tips are followed at your own risk. Please gamble responsibly.  

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