Virtual Grand National Betting Tips: The fourth ‘running’ of the Virtual Grand National will be screened by ITV1 at 5.15pm on Saturday 4th April
And with the total lack of real racing currently, punters will have the chance to see what might have happened had the race actually taken place at Aintree.
How do they do it?
Looking at the results of the first three Virtual Grand Nationals might help to highlight runners who are likely to go well tomorrow. The race is created by mathematical algorithms using past form, age, weight, going and weather conditions and also includes factors such as fallers, unseated riders and collapsing fences. The views of an expert panel are also taken into account. However, the bottom line is that the computer makes the final decision.
So, looking at the previous results do give some clues. In 2017, Cause of Causes won the virtual version of the race, finishing second in the real event. In 2018 Tiger Roll did the double and Rathvinden won the virtual race last year, finishing third in the real event.
How the algorithm has matched up against the real races previously
In 2017 the algorithm found six of the top 10 finishers of the real race. In 2018 it selected six of only 12 finishers including the winner and last year three of the first four in the virtual race finished first, third and fifth in the actual race. Therefore, looking at real life statistics around the Grand National could help to whittle down the field.
So, here goes… Let’s try to reduce the 40 runners to a more manageable final list:
- 85.71% of the last 28 winners were aged nine or older – which takes out 11 of the field
- 75% of the last 28 winners carried 10 stone 12 pounds or less – which reduces the field by a further nine runners (including Tiger Roll). We are now down to 20
- 57% of the last 16 winners came from the top eight in the betting – which gives us a short list of the following runners:
- 13 – MAGIC OF LIGHT
- 18 – DEFINITLY RED
- 30 – POTTERS CORNER
- 40 – WALK IN THE MILL
For those looking for a more speculative each way bet, our Virtual Grand National Betting Tips are that two of the last 16 winners won at odds of 66/1 or higher. Taking into account the age and weight statistics we have the following runners in this list:
- 23 – CRIEVEHILL
- 28 – SHATTERED LOVE
- 35 – VALTOR
- 37 – WARRIORS TALE
- 38 – DOUBLE SHUFFLE
Tony Ward is a keen follower of horseracing and provides readers of EclipseMagazine.co.uk with betting tips and explanations of that complicated pastime. Please note, Tony’s tips are his opinion only and you follow them at your own risk.