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As of today (Wednesday 3rd April) the field for the Grand National contains 81 runners. When the final declaration is made 40 runners will go to post.
Clearly, in both scenarios, working your way through 40-plus horses is an onerous task.
So, we can look at past winners to find common trends between them, that might help us to narrow the field. First I look at:
Grand National Winner Trends – Last 27 Renewals
26/27 – Ran no more than 55 days ago (96.29%)
26/27 – Officially rated 137 or higher (96.29%)
25/27 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before (92.59%)
24/27 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before (88.88%)
23/27 – Aged 9 or older (85.18%)
22/27 – Returned a double-figure price (81.48%)
21/27 – Ran no more than 34 days ago (77.77%)
21/27 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting (77.77%)
21/27 – Carried 10-12 OR LESS (77.77%)
18/27 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before (66.66%)
16/27 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS (59.26%)
16/27 – Finished in the top 4 last time out (59.26%)
16/27 – Aged 10 years-old or younger (59.26%)
15/27 – Placed favourites (55.55%)
14/27 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old (51.85%)
14/27 – Won by an Irish-bred horse (51.85%)
9/27 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out (33.33%)
8/27 – Trained in Ireland (inc 5 of the last 12 years) (29.62%)
6/27 – Ran in a previous Grand National (22.22%)
5/27 – Won by the favourite or joint-favourite (18.51%)
5/27 – Won last time out (18.51%)
0/27 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS (0%)
This does not narrow the field enough for me so I also look at:
Grand National Trends – 15 years
14/15 – Had won over at least 3m previously (93.33%)
13/15 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older (86.66%)
13/15 – Ran less than 50 days ago (86.66%)
13/15 – Officially rated 137 or higher (86.66%)
9/15 – Won by horses aged in double-figures (60%)
8/15 – Winners from the top 8 in the betting (60%)
8/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out (60%)
7/15 – Experienced the National fences (46.66%)
6/15 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight (40%)
5/15 – Won by a horse aged 10 years-old (33.33%)
5/15 – Won by an Irish-trained horse (33.33%)
3/15 – Winning favourites (2 joint) (20%)
3/15 – Won their last race (20%)
2/15 – Won at a starting price of 66/1 or higher (13.33%)
From these two sets of statistics, I have used the following trends to disregard horses which suggest their winning chances are low.
26/27 – Ran no more than 55 days ago (96.29%)
26/27 – Officially rated 137 or higher (96.29%)
23/27 – Aged 9 or older (85.18%)
21/27 – Ran no more than 34 days ago (77.77%)
21/27 – Carried 10-12 OR LESS (77.77%)
5/27 – Won last time out (18.51%)
13/15 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older (86.66%)
13/15 – Ran less than 50 days ago (86.66%)
13/15 – Officially rated 137 or higher (86.66%)
3/15 – Won their last race (20%)
2/15 – Won at a starting price of 66/1 or higher (13.33%)
This means I have reduced the 81 current entries to just NINE runners:
- Vintage Clouds
- Joe Farrell
- Mall Dini
- Walk In The Mill
- General Principle
- Up For Review
- Nobel Endeavor
- Out Sam
- The Young Master
For a final thought, when the runners are declared and the betting begins in earnest: the average winning Starting Price in the last 15 renewals is 28/1.
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Please note: tips are followed at your own risk. Please gamble responsibly.
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Tony Ward is a keen follower of horseracing and provides readers of EclipseMagazine.co.uk with betting tips and explanations of that complicated pastime. Please note, Tony’s tips are his opinion only and you follow them at your own risk.
