Eclipster: Royal Ascot Day 4 – Hard to ignore Hermosa in the Coronation Stakes

Friday 22nd June – 4:20pm – Royal Ascot – 1m (7f 213y) (Rnd) Coronation Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Fillies) (Class 1) (3yo)

The Coronation Stakes was established in 1840 to commemorate the Coronation of Queen Victoria in 1838. In 1971 the race was designated a Group 2 event and was promoted to Group 1 status in 1998. The race is open to three year old fillies and is usually contested by horses who ran in the 1,000 Guineas, the Irish 1,000 Guineas and the French equivalent the Poule d’Essai des Pouliches.

The betting is the first port of call when looking for the winner of the race as 16 of the last 19 winners were sent off at starting prices of no more than 6/1. Eight of the last 12 winners were favourites or joint favourites and eight of the last 12 winners were in the first three in the betting.

Nine of the 12 winners had run earlier in the season and six of the last 12 winners had won on their previous start. Only four of the last 12 winners had previously run at Ascot. Previous form over the race distance of 1 mile is significant as eight of the last 12 winners had previously won over the trip and all 12 winners had won at least twice previously, although not necessarily over 1 mile.

The 1,000 Guineas has been an excellent guide to the likely winner of the Coronation Stakes in recent times with 10 of the last 16 winners having contested the 1,000 Guineas. Seven of those 10 winners finished in the first six at Newmarket. The Irish 1,000 Guineas winner has followed up and won the Coronation Stakes nine times in the last 31 years.

An Official Rating of 109 or higher has been needed to win the race in 10 of the last 12 renewals. Previous Group 1 winning form should be noted as seven of the last 12 winners had at least one win at Group 1 level and 11 of the last 12 winners had previously won in Groups 1 to 3.

It is very difficult to get away from Hermosa. The Aiden O’Brien-trained bay filly has by far the best form in the field of nine runners. She won the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket by making all, even though she needed to be niggled along 2 furlongs from home before responding very well to pressure inside the final furlong. Her subsequent win in the Irish 1,000 Guineas at The Curragh three weeks later was far more emphatic, winning by 4 lengths. Her strength when finishing on both occasions was very evident, suggesting that Ascot’s stiff finish will bring about further improvement today.








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