The trends for the races of the 2011 John Smith’s Grand National Meeting, Day 2 – Ladies’ Day on 8th April – are as follows:

2:00 – John Smith Top Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 110y

Key Trends

 

  • 15 of the last 20 winners were in the front 4 in the market
  • 11 of the last 14 winners finished first or second last time out
  • Only 2 four year old winners in the last 13 renewals

Recent Winners

Year

Horse

Age

Trainer

Odds

2010

General Miller

5

Nicky Henderson

7/1

2009

El Dancer

5

Lucy Wadham

14/1

2008

Pierrot Lunaire

4

Paul Nicholls

5/1

2007

Blythe Knight

7

John Quinn

14/1

2006

Straw Bear

5

Nick Gifford

2/1F

2005

Mighty Man

5

Henry Daly

3/1

2004

Royal Shakespeare

5

Steve Gollings

25/1

2003

Limerick Boy

5

Venetia Williams

5/1

2002

In Contrast

6

Phillip Hobbs

5/2

2001

Illoo II

5

Phillip Hobbs

16/1

2000

Phardante Flyer

6

Phillip Hobbs

5/1

 


2:35 – Matalan.co.uk Mildmay Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) 3m 1f

Key Trends

 

  • 26 of the last 29 winners had won at least twice over fences
  • 18 of the last 20 winners had won over 3 miles plus
  • 20 of the last 23 winners were aged no older than 8
  • 21 of the last 22 winners started at single figure odds
  • 5 of the last 6 winners ran in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham

Recent Winners

Year

Horse

Age

Trainer

Odds

2010

Burton Port

6

Nicky Henderson

9/2

2009

Killyglen

7

Howard Johnson

7/1

2008

Big Buck’s

5

Paul Nicholls

11/4

2007

Aces Four

8

Ferdy Murphy

5/2F

2006

Star De Mohaison

5

Paul Nicholls

11/4F

2005

Like-A-Butterfly

11

Christy Loche

6/1

2004

Simply Supreme

7

Sue Smith

13/2

2003

Irish Hussar

7

Nicky Henderson

3/1

2002

Barton

9

Tim Easterby

3/1F

2001

What’s Up Boys

7

Phillip Hobbs

12/1

2000

High Game

6

Simon Sherwood

9/1



3:10 – John Smith’s Melling Chase (Grade 1) 2m 4f

Key Trends

 

  • 19 of the 20 winners had won over 2m4f
  • 12 of the last 16 winners started favourite or second favourite
  • 14 of the 20 winners had placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd at this meeting previously
  • Horses aged 7yo or younger have won 1 renewal since 1991

Recent Winners

Year

Horse

Age

Trainer

Odds

2010

Albertas Run

9

Jonjo O’Neill

8/1

2009

Voy Por Ustedes

8

Alan King

11/8F

2008

Voy Por Ustedes

7

Alan King

5/1

2007

Monet’s Garden

9

Nicky Richards

4/1

2006

Hi Cloy

9

Michael Hourigan

14/1

2005

Moscow Flyer

11

Jessica Harrington

4/9F

2004

Moscow Flyer

10

Jessica Harrington

EvsF

2003

Native Upmanship

10

Arthur Moore

6/4F

2002

Native Upmanship

9

Arthur Moore

100/30JF

2001

Fadalko

8

Paul Nicholls

9/2

2000

Direct Route

9

Howard Johnson

11/8F

 


3:45 – John Smith’s Topham Chase (Listed) 2m 5f 110yds

Key Trends

 

  • 13 of the last 18 winners had raced 7 or more times in the season
  • 34 of the 37 winners of the race were aged 8 or over
  • 8 out of the last 10 winners were Irish or French bred
  • Only 1 winner has carried more than 11st since 2000
  • Horses aged 11 and over are 0 – 90 since 1993

Recent Winners

Year

Horse

Age

Trainer

Odds

2010

Always Waining

9

Peter Bowen

22/1

2009

Irish Raptor

10

Nigel Twiston-Davies

8/1

2008

Gwanako

5

Paul Nicholls

7/1JF

2007

Dunbrody Millar

9

Peter Bowen

25/1

2006

Liberthine

7

Nicky Henderson

16/1

2005

Cregg House

10

Shane Donohoe

50/1

2004

Cassia Heights

9

Steve Brookshaw

33/1

2003

Clan Royal

8

Jonjo O’Neill

12/1

2002

Its Time For A Win

10

Willie Mullins

10/1

2001

Gower-Slave

9

Phillip Hobbs

14/1

2000

Northern Starlight

9

Martin Pipe

7/1

 


3:45 – John Smith’s Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 3m 110yds

Key Trends

 

  • 15 of the last 16 winners had won at least twice over hurdles
  • 11 of the last 17 winners had won over 3 miles plus
  • 11 out of the last 13 winners were aged 6 or over

Recent Winners

Year

Horse

Age

Trainer

Odds

2010

Wayward Prince

6

Ian Williams

9/1

2009

Ogee

6

Renee Robeson

25/1

2008

Pettitfour

6

Nigel Twiston-Davies

16/1

2007

Chief Dan George

7

James Moffatt

20/1

2006

Black Jack Ketchum

7

Jonjo O’Neill

8/13F

2005

Asian Maze

6

Tom Mullins

7/1

2004

Accipiter

5

Toby Balding

14/1

2003

Iris’s Gift

6

Jonjo O’Neill

10/11F

2002

Stromness

5

Alan King

8/1

2001

Garruth

7

Tim Easterby

16/1

2000

Sackville

7

Frances Crowley

12/1

 


4:20 – John Smith’s Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 3m 110yds

Key Trends

 

  • 15 of the last 16 winners had won at least twice over hurdles
  • 11 of the last 17 winners had won over 3 miles plus
  • 11 out of the last 13 winners were aged 6 or over

Recent Winners

Year

Horse

Age

Trainer

Odds

2010

Wayward Prince

6

Ian Williams

9/1

2009

Ogee

6

Renee Robeson

25/1

2008

Pettitfour

6

Nigel Twiston-Davies

16/1

2007

Chief Dan George

7

James Moffatt

20/1

2006

Black Jack Ketchum

7

Jonjo O’Neill

8/13F

2005

Asian Maze

6

Tom Mullins

7/1

2004

Accipiter

5

Toby Balding

14/1

2003

Iris’s Gift

6

Jonjo O’Neill

10/11F

2002

Stromness

5

Alan King

8/1

2001

Garruth

7

Tim Easterby

16/1

2000

Sackville

7

Frances Crowley

12/1

 


4:55 – John Smith’s smithythehorse.com Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 3m 110yds

Key Trends

 

  • 22 of the 23 winners had run at least 4 times in the current season
  • The last 15 winners has a pre race official rating of 124 – 134
  • 11 out of the last 13 winners were aged 6 or over
  • Only 2 winning 5yo in the last 20 years 

Recent Winners

Year

Horse

Age

Trainer

Odds

2010

Ringaroses

9

Jonjo O’Neill

10/1

2009

Time For Rupert

5

Paul Webber

50/1

2008

Forest Pennant

6

Paul Nicholls

9/2F

2007

Albertas Run

6

Jonjo O’Neill

9/2F

2006

Refinement

7

Jonjo O’Neill

11/4F

2005

Holland Park

8

Sarah Williams

10/1

2004

His Nibs

7

Venetia Williams

14/1

2003

Carlovent

8

Martin Pipe

16/1

2002

Sudden Shock

7

Jonjo O’Neill

33/1

2001

Carlovent

6

Martin Pipe

25/1

2000

Ross Moff

7

Tony Martin

9/2

 


5:30 – John Smith’s Mares’ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed) 2m 1f

Key Trends

 

  • 5 of the 6 winners had been placed first or second last time out
  • John Kiely’s runners have finished 4-1-2 in 2009 and 2010

Recent Winners

Year

Horse

Age

Trainer

Odds

2010

Big Time Billy

4

Peter Bowen

28/1

2009

Candy Creek

5

John Kiely

9/2

2008

Carole’s Legacy

4

Nicky Henderson

25/1

2007

Turbo Linn

4

Alan Swinbank

5/2F

2006

Rhacophorus

5

Chris Down

7/1

2005

Senorita Rumbalita

4

A King

9/2

 

GUIDE TO THE GRAND NATIONAL 2011 – CLICK HERE

TONY WARD

“I live in the North of Cumbria near the Solway Coast. My wife and I own a smallholding where we keep our horses. I have been involved in racing for over 20 years – the highlight being when a 2yo I owned won first time out at Hamilton Park. I work full-time in the racing game spending my time writing, researching and on course as a paddock judge – you can learn more about a horse’s chances watching them in the pre-parade and parade rings than you might imagine.”

Read more of Tony’s trends at http://freelanceracingwriter.com/

Disclaimer: Please note that Tony offers tips but cannot guarantee the results. All gambling is at your own risk and neither Eclipse Magazine Ltd nor Tony Ward can be held liable for any money lost as a result of following the tips. By using tips from this page you are deemed to have accepted this disclaimer. Please read your bookmaker’s gambling guidelines, terms and conditions when placing a bet.