4:00 – Nottingham – BDN CIVIL ENGINEERING HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (3yo 0–85) Good To Soft 1m 1f

In a race in which six of the eight runners can be given a chance it is worth considering Future Security at a bigger price as the conditions of today’s race give the three-year-old chestnut colt his best chance of winning since his last win three starts back.

Future Security has only raced five times in his career and has made just three starts this season. With many flat horses now going over the top after long hard seasons the fact that he is still relatively fresh could count in his favour.

He does have plenty to prove on his runs this season however. He did not make his seasonal reappearance until August, winning in Good ground at Bath in a Class 4 Handicap over 1 mile 2 furlongs. He was then upped in class and distance to run in a Class 2 Handicap at York and although he finished down the field he did run well for a long way before being eased down with 1 miles 6 furlongs looking to much of a stamina test for him. His last run was at Folkestone back down into a Class 4 Handicap. He again travelled well but weakened over 1 furlong out. He was running on Good to Firm ground for the first time and was also running over 1 mile 4 furlongs, a distance he again failed to see out.

He is back down in trip this afternoon and running on ground which is Good to Soft, Soft in places and he is back down in trip to 1 mile 1 furlong. His three best pieces of form have come around this trip as he was placed over 1 mile in Soft ground on his debut and won his next two starts over 1 mile 1 furlong and 1 mile 2 furlongs respectively, running in Good ground on both occasions.

He has the talented Silvestre De Sousa riding today who has ridden him on his last two starts so should have a fair idea of how to get the best out of him. Silvestre is having an excellent season and has ridden 109 winners to date and has a 17% winning strike rate riding for Saeed Bin Suroor.

Having been tried over longer trips and in upped in class, Future Security should be seen too much better effect today. The going will be much more to his liking, as will the race distance. There have been plenty of shock winners over the last week as many horses are not running to the form expected of them as they are going over the top after long seasons. With Future Security only having his fourth run of the season this afternoon he looks worth chancing at a current price of 13/2. His form figures of one win and one placed run from two starts in the month of October also give cause for optimism.

 

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TONY WARD

“I live in the North of Cumbria near the Solway Coast. My wife and I own a smallholding where we keep our horses. I have been involved in racing for over 20 years – the highlight being when a 2yo I owned won first time out at Hamilton Park. I work full-time in the racing game spending my time writing, researching and on course as a paddock judge – you can learn more about a horse’s chances watching them in the pre-parade and parade rings than you might imagine.”

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